Resources | Global Futures
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Monday, February 20, 2012 - Weekly e-Newsletter & Commentary -
Issue No. 498
| Economic Calendar |
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Consensus |
Prior |
| Feb 22 |
7:00 AM |
MBA Mortgage Index |
02/18 |
NA |
-1.0% |
| Feb 22 |
10:00 AM |
Existing Home Sales |
Jan |
NA |
4.61M |
| Feb 23 |
8:30 AM |
Initial Claims |
02/18 |
NA |
348K |
| Feb 23 |
8:30 AM |
Continuing Claims |
02/11 |
NA |
3426K |
| Feb 23 |
10:00 AM |
FHFA Housing Price Index |
Dec |
NA |
1.0% |
| Feb 23 |
11:00 AM |
Crude Inventories |
02/18 |
NA |
NA |
| Feb 24 |
9:55 AM |
Michigan Sentiment - Final |
Feb |
NA |
72.5 |
| Feb 24 |
10:00 AM |
New Home Sales |
Jan |
NA |
307K |
|
| View Our Complete Economic Calendar |
| |
| Gold and Silver Commentary |
| Global Futures |
 Gold prices continue to track investors’ inflation expectations (tracked by “breakeven rates”, which are the difference between yields on nominal and inflation-adjusted US Treasury bonds). This opens the door for two opposing scenarios. An improvement on the US retail sales front may weigh on gold as QE3 expectations wane. The same data release may likewise offer support if the outcome bolsters risk appetite, punishing the safe-haven US Dollar.
Click here to read more. |
| |
| Crude Oil Commentary |
| Global Futures |
 Crude oil prices rose to the highest in over a month yesterday after a broadly supportive set of US economic data bolstered the demand outlook in the world’s largest consumer. Geopolitical jitters continued to compound upward pressure after Iran claimed a “major” breakthrough in its nuclear program after 3,000 next-generation centrifuges were allegedly installed at its main enrichment site in Natanz. The US State Department dismissed the news as “hype” for the domestic audience.
Click here to read more. |
| |
| Forex Commentary |
| Global Futures |
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index is 0.22 percent higher from the open after retracing the overnight decline to 9,787, and the greenback may continue to track higher in the days ahead as the stickiness in inflation curbs speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program. As the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves, we expect the recent weakness in the USD to be short-lived, but the technical development points to a near-term correction as the index struggles to push above the lower bounds of the recent channel. Indeed, the bearish divergence in the 30-minute relative strength index could produce another dip in the index, but we anticipate the recent strength USD to gather pace over the near-term as growth and inflation picks up.
Click here to read more. |
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| Fundamental Analysis: |
| Global Futures |
The US dollar’s performance through the final months of 2011 was remarkably strong. The benchmark currency managed impressive advances against its European counterparts (the euro, British pound and Swiss franc) and held its ground against the high-yield commodity currencies despite an advance in equities and other prominent “risk on” financial assets.
Looking into 2012, there are a number of fundamental uncertainties that could potentially define the trend going forward. Taking a page from history, we know to watch for potentially explosive developments such as the return of a global crisis, further large-scale stimulus programs (from the US and from other countries) and the deterioration of the health of the greenback’s most liquid counterpart: the euro. Additionally, you can’t fully appreciate the dollar’s fundamental health without considering the outlook for the US economy, the antsy hands behind idle capital, the presidential election cycle and the slow but persistent global effort to diversify reserves away from the benchmark currency.
Click here to read more. |
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